Russia
12 briefs
Yuan Settlements Hit $1 Trillion a Day. The Petrodollar System Is Being Stress-Tested.
The Iran war locked 16 percent of global oil production behind the Strait of Hormuz. The biggest beneficiaries are Russia and China. The dollar's reserve status depends on assumptions that are now visibly cracking.
Putin Wants to Talk. Ukraine Has Heard This Before.
Russia is proposing direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15 with no preconditions. The last time that happened, Kyiv drafted a deal and then dropped it under Western pressure. Putin is betting the circumstances are different now.
The Waiver Is Gone. India Is Next.
Bessent just ended the sanctions relief that let India buy Russian and Iranian oil. He also threatened secondary sanctions on the banks that helped them do it.
Zelenskyy Says Washington Has No Time for Ukraine
Russia launched 659 aerial targets at Ukraine on April 16 while the diplomats who are supposed to be negotiating Ukraine's peace deal were in Muscat talking to Iran.
Europe Is Trying to Win a War the US Stopped Funding
Zelenskyy rejected a 'NATO-light' deal in Berlin, signed 10 defense agreements with Germany, and now expects a $105 billion EU loan after Orban's election loss. The market says there's still only a 10.5% chance of a ceasefire by June 30.
The Truce That Never Was
Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 32-hour Easter ceasefire. Ukraine counted 2,299 violations. The ceasefire expired with both sides accusing each other and Trump's peace plan no closer than before.
Half the Island Goes Dark
Cuba's power grid is generating half of what the country needs. China and Russia are watching. The US is squeezing. Hospitals are running on generators.
32 Hours of Nothing
Putin announced a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter. Ukraine accepted. The war did not.
Putin's Easter Ceasefire Is a Trap, and Both Sides Know It
A 32-hour pause that neither side believes in, brokered by no one, enforced by nothing, is not a step toward peace. It is a rehearsal for blaming the other side.
Trump Threatened 50% Tariffs on Iran's Arms Suppliers. He Has No Law to Do It With.
The same Supreme Court that struck down $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs in February is now being asked to validate a new 50% tariff threat posted on Truth Social. The UK is expecting to be hit. No one has named the legal authority.
Zelensky Is Using the Iran Deal as a Mirror. Russia Doesn't Like What It Sees.
Ukraine's president publicly praised the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and immediately demanded Russia accept the same framework. It is the most sophisticated diplomatic move Zelensky has made in two years, and it works whether or not Russia agrees.
China and Russia Kill the Hormuz Lifeline
Beijing and Moscow didn't veto a resolution protecting shipping. they vetoed the idea that the UN Security Council has any authority over a war they're quietly backing.