tariffs
71 briefs
Trump's Tariff Playbook Has One Move Left and It Also Got Struck Down
The Section 122 tariffs are the third legal theory Trump has tried to impose global duties -- and courts keep stopping each one while letting him keep collecting until further notice.
Pump Relief as Political Triage
Gas hit $4.52. Trump wants to kill the gas tax. Congress needs to pass it. The Highway Trust Fund will pay.
The Court Said the Tariffs Are Illegal. Importers Are Still Paying Them.
A federal trade court ruled Trump's 10% global surcharge unlawful. The same day, it agreed to let the government keep collecting while it appeals. 170,000 companies are funding a tariff the court just declared invalid.
Trump Names His Own Justices in Public, Warns the Birthright Ruling Will Follow
Gorsuch and Barrett voted wrong on tariffs. Now they face the birthright case. Trump is not asking for loyalty. He is documenting a grievance.
The Summit Without a Spine
Trump flies to Beijing Tuesday. Both sides want stability. Neither side can say what they actually need from the other.
The Courts Have Now Killed Two Different Tariff Regimes. Trump Keeps Building New Ones.
The first $166B in IEEPA refunds arrive today. Last week a trade court struck down the 10% replacement tariff. The administration's legal theory for unilateral trade authority is running out of runways.
The Trump-Xi Summit Is About Iran. China Wants It That Way.
The US-China summit next week was supposed to be about tariffs and rare earths. Iran has displaced both topics. That displacement is not accidental — it is the best outcome China could have engineered.
The Summit That Has to Look Like Nothing
Trump and Xi have more to gain from a deal than from a standoff. The problem is neither can afford to say so.
China's Exports Hit a Monthly Record While Trump Is Flying to Beijing to Demand Concessions
China's April export surge was driven partly by buyers front-loading against Iran war supply disruptions. It also gives Xi Jinping a stronger hand at next week's summit than any tariff threat could have produced.
The Second Time a Court Killed Trump's Tariffs
The Court of International Trade struck down Trump's replacement 10% global tariffs. He appealed within 24 hours. The question is no longer whether courts will stop him, but whether it matters.
Tariffs Ruled Unlawful, Again. It Still Won't Matter.
A federal trade court struck down Trump's 10% global tariffs, but the ruling only protects two importers and one state.
The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Is Starting to Pay Out
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, importers are getting real money back. The mechanics of that repayment expose exactly how much the policy cost.
The EU Made a Deal with Trump. Trump Is Now Threatening to Break It Over Greenland.
Brussels struck a July 2025 agreement setting tariffs at 15%. Trump threatened 25% on cars last week. The EU is asking Washington to honor the deal it signed nine months ago. Washington is not answering.
Liberation Day Is One Year Old. Moody's Says It Did 'Significant Damage.' Courts Are About to Force Refunds.
Job growth stalled. Inflation stayed above target. The IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal. Polymarket gives 81.5% odds the courts force refunds by June. The White House calls it a success.
$175 Billion in Tariff Refunds Are Starting to Flow. The Fight Over Who Gets Them Is Just Beginning.
Large multinationals have customs teams ready. Small importers are still figuring out the portal. The money goes to whoever filed correctly, not to whoever paid the most.
Trump Is Coming for European Cars Again
The USTR confirmed 25% tariffs on EU autos are moving forward. Europe's car industry was already struggling. This time, the trigger is geopolitical, not just protectionist.
The Tariffs Are Gone. The $166 Billion Refund Has Arrived. The Trade War Has Not Ended.
SCOTUS killed IEEPA tariffs in February. Trump is replacing them with Section 301 hearings starting this week. The destination is the same. Only the route changed.
Trump Broke the EU Car Deal He Made at His Own Golf Course. The Reason He Gave Does Not Hold.
The Turnberry deal lowered EU auto tariffs to 15% last July. Trump raised them back to 25% without citing a specific EU violation. The EU's trade chief meets his US counterpart in Paris tomorrow.
The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Nobody Asked For
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs. The refund goes to importers. The consumers who paid higher prices get nothing.
Trump Tears Up the Turnberry Agreement
Raising EU auto tariffs to 25% doesn't just hit cars. It breaches a deal that also covers semiconductors, AI chips, and digital trade — the things the US most needs from Europe right now.
China Gave All of Africa Zero-Tariff Access, Except the One Country That Recognizes Taiwan
The same day Taiwan's president arrived in Eswatini through a secret route after China blocked his aircraft, Beijing announced zero tariffs for all 53 African nations except Eswatini. The timing is not coincidental.
Trump Rips Up the EU Car Deal and Announces 25% Auto Tariffs. Europe Has No Good Response.
The US-EU trade agreement was supposed to hold at a 10% baseline tariff. Trump has now raised the rate on cars and lorries to 25%, accusing the EU of non-compliance. The EU has no leverage it is willing to use.
The Special Relationship, Invoiced
UK exports to the US fell 25% after Liberation Day tariffs. Britain now runs a trade deficit with its largest trading partner. Polymarket says there is only a 22% chance of a deal before 2027.
China's New Trade Law Lets It Seize Foreign Assets. Trump Visits in Two Weeks.
Beijing quietly amended its Foreign Trade Law to authorize punishment of companies that reduce their business with China, just as US firms are quietly doing exactly that. The timing is not coincidental.
The Government Has to Return $166 Billion in Illegal Tariffs. Its Portal Is Rejecting 15% of Claims.
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs, the administration built a refund system and then quietly set it to deny one in seven valid claims. The first checks go out May 11.
Volkswagen Says Its Future Is at Risk. It Is Now Considering Letting Chinese Rivals Build Cars in Its Own European Factories.
VW reported a 14% profit collapse in Q1 2026 while warning cuts so far are not enough. The proposed solution is to share underutilized European plants with BYD and other Chinese brands that are competing with it everywhere.
US Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low. Economists Say the Real Pain Is Still Coming.
At 189,000, initial claims are the lowest since September 1969. Analysts say tariffs and Iran war costs haven't hit payrolls yet, but they will.
US and China Trade Barbs Two Weeks Before the Summit. Both Sides Are Building Leverage, Not Trust.
Bessent calls Beijing's new supply chain rules 'provocative' on the same day He Lifeng voices 'solemn concern' over US trade measures. The Trump-Xi meeting is 15 days away.
Canada's Sovereign Debt Fund
Mark Carney announced a sovereign wealth fund this week. Norway built its fund from oil surpluses. Canada plans to build its fund from borrowed money. Those are not the same thing.
The Tariff Laundering Operation
The Supreme Court killed Trump's tariffs in February. He is now rebuilding the same wall using legal authority the courts have traditionally not touched.
Affordable Cars Are Leaving the American Market
Nissan, Toyota and Hyundai have told the Trump administration that without a USMCA renewal, entry-level models no longer make economic sense to sell in the US.
The $166 Billion Refund Nobody Can Actually Collect: The IEEPA Ruling's Unfinished Business
The Supreme Court killed Trump's Liberation Day tariffs in February. The refund process launched April 20. But 56,000 importers are chasing $127 billion through a new government portal, while Congress hagles over whether small businesses will ever see a dime.
$166 Billion Goes Back to Walmart. American Families Get Nothing.
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, the government is now refunding the money, and the legal structure guarantees that corporations receive every dollar while the consumers who bore the costs are locked out entirely.
Consumers Paid the Tariffs. Businesses Get the Refunds.
The Supreme Court struck down $166 billion in tariffs as unconstitutional. The refund portal opened Monday. Almost none of that money flows back to the households that actually bore the cost.
One Year of Trump Tariffs: The Numbers Are In
The Budget Lab at Yale finds 460,000 jobs lost and $1,700 per household per year. The administration says this proves the policy is working.
Trump Owes $159 Billion in Tariff Refunds. He Is Telling Companies Not to Collect.
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, CBP opened a refund portal, and Trump responded by publicly threatening companies that use it. The rule of law is now a political risk calculation.
The $166 Billion Bait and Switch
The Supreme Court struck down the tariffs. The refunds are real. The question nobody will answer is who actually gets the money.
Trump to Britain: Protect Apple or Pay Tariffs
The UK's digital services tax is not a trade dispute. It is a test of whether any US ally can tax American tech companies without US retaliation.
The Tariff Refund Is a Bill, Not a Check
Businesses that passed tariff costs to consumers are now eligible for government refunds. Taxpayers pay twice and the money flows to companies that already made their customers whole.
Trump Got All 17 Pharma Companies to Say Yes. Now the Hard Part Starts.
Every major drug company has signed a most-favored-nation pledge. None of it is enforceable, and the tariff relief that made it happen just created a new exemption class.
Business Is Growing. Prices Are Growing Faster.
April's flash PMI hit a 47-month high for manufacturing. It also logged the fastest input price inflation since 2022. Both facts are true. The Fed cannot act on either one.
The Free Trade Deal That Isn't Free Anymore
The USMCA review hits July 1 with a US Trade Representative telling Mexico its tariffs on steel, autos, and aluminum are staying. The agreement's survival now depends on what Mexico does with Chinese factories inside its borders.
86% of US CEOs Are Planning as If Trump's Tariffs Will Outlast Trump
A PwC survey of 633 executives found the planning assumption has shifted: tariffs are no longer a negotiating tactic to wait out. They are structural. The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Congress didn't replace them. CEOs adapted anyway.
Trump Tells Companies to Waive Their Court-Ordered Refunds
The Supreme Court struck down his tariffs as unconstitutional. The refund portal is open. Trump is now pressuring companies to not use it, promising to 'remember' those who comply.
The OECD Says Tariffs Pushed US Inflation to 4.2 Percent. The Market Does Not Believe a Recession Is Coming.
Every major forecasting institution is revising US growth down and inflation up, attributing both directly to tariffs. Polymarket still prices a recession at 24.5%. One of them is badly wrong.
The Government Is Mailing $166 Billion Back to Importers. Consumers Who Paid the Tariffs Get Nothing.
The refund portal is live. Only the companies that wrote the checks to Customs can claim. The people who actually absorbed the cost in higher prices are legally invisible.
India Comes to Washington to Renegotiate a Deal It Never Signed
Three-day talks in DC open today to restart the India-US bilateral trade agreement. India had agreed to major concessions under the old IEEPA tariff regime. The Supreme Court wiped out the baseline. Now New Delhi wants those concessions back.
The Largest Trade Refund in US History Goes to the Wrong People
The CAPE portal opened Monday for businesses to claim $127-166 billion in tariff refunds. Consumers who actually paid the higher prices get nothing.
Tariffs Ruled Illegal, Then Hiked to 15%
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional, so Trump raised them under a different legal theory.
The 90-Day Truce That Changes Nothing
The US and China rolled back their tariff war from 145% and 125% to 30% and 10% respectively. The deal expires in 90 days. Neither side agreed to anything structural.
Trump Says Tariffs Will Replace the Income Tax. The Math Doesn't Work. That's Not the Point.
The proposal is arithmetically impossible and legally requires Congress. It is doing its intended job anyway.
178,000 Jobs and a Recession Incoming
March added three times more jobs than anyone expected. Economists say a recession is coming anyway. Both are true, and what reconciles them is the part nobody wants to explain.
The $127 Billion Refund Nobody Will Receive
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Starting April 20, companies can apply for refunds. Most will not get them. Trump already has a backup plan.
The Government Is Refunding $127 Billion in Tariffs. It Plans to Collect Them Again by July.
The Supreme Court said IEEPA tariffs were illegal. CBP opens a refund portal on April 20. Treasury Secretary Bessent says replacement tariffs will be back at roughly the same levels by summer.
Tariffs Struck Down, Tariffs Coming Back
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency tariff powers unconstitutional. The administration is already routing around the ruling.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
Trump Threatens to Fire Powell. The Market Says He Won't Get What He Wants Either Way.
The Federal Reserve chair's term ends May 15, but his replacement can't get confirmed, a criminal investigation is blocking the vote, and Powell says he's staying. No one is getting a rate cut.
The Court Ordered $133 Billion Back. Now What?
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. A federal court ordered refunds. Trump is already testing a workaround using a different statute. The constitutional crisis is just starting.
Billions in Tariff Refunds Are Coming. Consumers Won't See a Dollar.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs and ordered $133 billion in refunds. A CFO survey found most companies plan to keep the money. 86% of CEOs now treat tariffs as permanent anyway.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.
The $166 Billion Waiting Room
The Supreme Court ordered a tariff refund. The money doesn't exist yet. Meanwhile Trump has already replaced the struck-down tariffs with a new legal theory a trade court is currently shredding.
The Shoulder Missile Gambit
Trump threatened China with 50% tariffs over a reported MANPADS shipment to Iran. The shipment is unverified. The tariff is untriggered. Both sides are using the threat as a bargaining chip before a May summit.
Two Drug Prices at Once
Trump is simultaneously threatening 100% tariffs on brand-name drugs that do not cut prices and expanding Medicare's power to negotiate drug prices downward. These are opposite levers. One of them is a bluff.
Tariff Whack-a-Mole
After SCOTUS killed the IEEPA tariffs, Trump pivoted to Section 122. Now that too is before a federal court, and the question is whether any statutory authority can sustain his trade policy.
The War That Came Home at the Pump
American consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point on record. The cause is not the stock market. It is the price of gas, and gas is expensive because of a war the administration started.
The Tariff That Outlived Its Legal Theory
Trump's 10% global tariff is standing on a 1974 law the Supreme Court already gutted, and a panel of judges just told him so.
Trump's Backup Tariff Plan Is in Court. It Has a 150-Day Clock and a Dubious Legal Theory.
After the Supreme Court killed his IEEPA tariffs in February, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act. The new 10% global levy requires a real 'balance-of-payments deficit' and expires in 150 days. Both conditions are working against him.
The Court Took Away the President's Tariff Gun. He's Already Looking for Another One.
SCOTUS killed $166 billion in tariffs in February. By April, Trump was threatening new 50% levies with no named legal authority.
Trump Threatened 50% Tariffs on Iran's Arms Suppliers. The Supreme Court Already Took Away His Authority to Do That.
Hours after signing a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Trump announced tariffs on any country arming Tehran. citing no legal basis, just days after the Supreme Court stripped his primary enforcement mechanism.
Trump Threatened 50% Tariffs on Iran's Arms Suppliers. He Has No Law to Do It With.
The same Supreme Court that struck down $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs in February is now being asked to validate a new 50% tariff threat posted on Truth Social. The UK is expecting to be hit. No one has named the legal authority.
The $166 Billion Tax Nobody Gets Back
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal. American businesses and families paid $166 billion. One year later, the government has not issued a single refund. and is imposing new tariffs to replace the overturned ones.