China
20 briefs
Congress Is Trying to Lock China Out of the Chip Industry. Nvidia Says That's the Wrong Move.
The MATCH Act would block China from buying the machines that make advanced chips. Jensen Huang says restricting China just makes it build faster.
Yuan Settlements Hit $1 Trillion a Day. The Petrodollar System Is Being Stress-Tested.
The Iran war locked 16 percent of global oil production behind the Strait of Hormuz. The biggest beneficiaries are Russia and China. The dollar's reserve status depends on assumptions that are now visibly cracking.
The Waiver Is Gone. India Is Next.
Bessent just ended the sanctions relief that let India buy Russian and Iranian oil. He also threatened secondary sanctions on the banks that helped them do it.
The Deal That Depends on Beijing Keeping Its Word
Trump says China agreed not to arm Iran. That claim is doing enormous diplomatic work for a ceasefire that does not yet exist.
Jensen Huang Said There Was No Evidence. There Were Six Indictments.
Federal prosecutors have charged six men in three weeks with smuggling billions in Nvidia chips to China. The CEO who denied it is now selling chips to the US government instead.
The Hormuz Blockade Is Not About Iran. It's About What China Will Agree to Before Trump Arrives in Beijing.
The US naval embargo that's halting oil tankers in the world's most critical shipping lane has a secondary audience of one: Xi Jinping, who needs that oil and who Trump is visiting in six weeks.
The Arms Transfer That Could Detonate the Xi Summit
US intelligence says China is routing air defense systems to Iran. Trump is threatening 50% tariffs. A May summit hangs in the balance. Beijing denies everything.
The Shoulder Missile Gambit
Trump threatened China with 50% tariffs over a reported MANPADS shipment to Iran. The shipment is unverified. The tariff is untriggered. Both sides are using the threat as a bargaining chip before a May summit.
The Export Control Bottleneck
Staffing losses and tighter oversight inside the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security have turned AI chip export licenses into months-long waits. The US is blocking its own allies.
The Handshake and the Warplanes
Xi met Taiwan's opposition leader in Beijing while sending 16 warplanes toward the island. The signal was not diplomatic.
The Bureaucracy That's Losing the Chip War
Trump's plan to sell AI chips to allies is collapsing inside the Commerce Department, where staff have fled and license approvals now take months.
Half the Island Goes Dark
Cuba's power grid is generating half of what the country needs. China and Russia are watching. The US is squeezing. Hospitals are running on generators.
Beijing's Proxy in Taipei
Xi met the KMT's leader in Beijing while 16 Chinese warplanes circled Taiwan. The timing was not coincidental.
China's Invisible Hand in the Iran Ceasefire
Beijing brokered peace through Pakistan, kept its fingerprints off the deal, and is now heading into the Trump summit holding the winning hand.
China's Deflation Is Over. The Replacement Is Worse.
After 41 months of falling factory prices, China's PPI turned positive in March. The cause is not demand recovery. It is a war in Iran driving up energy costs that Chinese manufacturers cannot pass on to consumers who are not buying.
Beijing Invited the Opposition. Taiwan's Government Should Be Alarmed.
The KMT chair's 'Journey of Peace' to Beijing is a sophisticated move to split Taiwanese politics before Trump meets Xi.
The Chip War Is Now a Two-Front Battle, and the US Is Losing the Material That Wins It
The MATCH Act would cut China off from Dutch chipmaking tools. China's InP export controls just cut the world off from the material that makes AI data centers run. Washington is winning the equipment war while Beijing controls the supply chain beneath it.
Trump Threatened 50% Tariffs on Iran's Arms Suppliers. The Supreme Court Already Took Away His Authority to Do That.
Hours after signing a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Trump announced tariffs on any country arming Tehran. citing no legal basis, just days after the Supreme Court stripped his primary enforcement mechanism.
Trump Threatened 50% Tariffs on Iran's Arms Suppliers. He Has No Law to Do It With.
The same Supreme Court that struck down $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs in February is now being asked to validate a new 50% tariff threat posted on Truth Social. The UK is expecting to be hit. No one has named the legal authority.
China and Russia Kill the Hormuz Lifeline
Beijing and Moscow didn't veto a resolution protecting shipping. they vetoed the idea that the UN Security Council has any authority over a war they're quietly backing.