oil
16 briefs
The IMF Abandoned Its Baseline
When the world's economic referee stops issuing forecasts and starts issuing warnings, that is the forecast.
The Ceasefire That Depends on the Blockade
Iran and the US are negotiating peace while simultaneously threatening the conditions that make peace impossible.
Yuan Settlements Hit $1 Trillion a Day. The Petrodollar System Is Being Stress-Tested.
The Iran war locked 16 percent of global oil production behind the Strait of Hormuz. The biggest beneficiaries are Russia and China. The dollar's reserve status depends on assumptions that are now visibly cracking.
The Waiver Is Gone. India Is Next.
Bessent just ended the sanctions relief that let India buy Russian and Iranian oil. He also threatened secondary sanctions on the banks that helped them do it.
The IMF Is Describing a Recession. Bessent Is Calling It a Strategy.
The IMF cut global growth forecasts and warned the Iran war could tip the world into recession. The US Treasury Secretary told the BBC the pain is worth it.
The Siege That Talks Are Supposed to End
The US blockade of Iranian ports is working militarily and collapsing diplomatically at the same time.
The Hormuz Blockade Is Not About Iran. It's About What China Will Agree to Before Trump Arrives in Beijing.
The US naval embargo that's halting oil tankers in the world's most critical shipping lane has a secondary audience of one: Xi Jinping, who needs that oil and who Trump is visiting in six weeks.
The Blockade Begins
After ceasefire talks collapse in Islamabad, the US Navy moves to strangle Iranian ports. Oil hits $104. The question is not whether Iran will respond. It is how.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.
Seven Days to Comment on a Sacred Site
The Trump administration gave the public one week to weigh in on opening 336,000 acres near Chaco Canyon to oil and gas drilling. 70,000 comments arrived. The review continues anyway.
War Tax at the Pump
The Iran war produced the largest single-month US price spike in four years. The Federal Reserve cannot fix a supply shock, and Polymarket is pricing April inflation at 3.5-3.7%. Nobody in Washington is explaining who actually pays.
The Toll Booth at the End of the War
The ceasefire is two weeks old. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Iran is charging ships for the privilege of passing through.
China's Deflation Is Over. The Replacement Is Worse.
After 41 months of falling factory prices, China's PPI turned positive in March. The cause is not demand recovery. It is a war in Iran driving up energy costs that Chinese manufacturers cannot pass on to consumers who are not buying.
The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year
Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.
The Ceasefire Happened. The Ships Are Not Coming Back.
Maersk, Norwegian shipowners, and every major tanker operator say the ceasefire is not enough to resume Strait of Hormuz transits. The gap between 'political agreement' and 'safe passage' is where the energy crisis lives.
The Ceasefire Has Three Versions. None of Them Cover Lebanon.
VP Vance admitted there are three conflicting drafts of the Iran truce circulating simultaneously. That isn't a diplomatic misunderstanding. It is the deal.