Strait of Hormuz
11 briefs
The Deal That Depends on Beijing Keeping Its Word
Trump says China agreed not to arm Iran. That claim is doing enormous diplomatic work for a ceasefire that does not yet exist.
The Siege That Talks Are Supposed to End
The US blockade of Iranian ports is working militarily and collapsing diplomatically at the same time.
The Hormuz Blockade Is Not About Iran. It's About What China Will Agree to Before Trump Arrives in Beijing.
The US naval embargo that's halting oil tankers in the world's most critical shipping lane has a secondary audience of one: Xi Jinping, who needs that oil and who Trump is visiting in six weeks.
No Deal in Islamabad
21 hours of direct talks between the US and Iran collapsed over nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire is now strain-tested with no replacement framework.
The Islamabad Gamble
Vance flew to Pakistan to negotiate a peace with Iran that neither side can fully afford to want.
China's Invisible Hand in the Iran Ceasefire
Beijing brokered peace through Pakistan, kept its fingerprints off the deal, and is now heading into the Trump summit holding the winning hand.
The Ceasefire Happened. The Ships Are Not Coming Back.
Maersk, Norwegian shipowners, and every major tanker operator say the ceasefire is not enough to resume Strait of Hormuz transits. The gap between 'political agreement' and 'safe passage' is where the energy crisis lives.
The Ceasefire Has Three Versions. None of Them Cover Lebanon.
VP Vance admitted there are three conflicting drafts of the Iran truce circulating simultaneously. That isn't a diplomatic misunderstanding. It is the deal.
NATO Survived the Cold War. Whether It Survives Trump Depends on Who Blinks First.
Trump called NATO a 'paper tiger' and threatened withdrawal after European allies refused to join Operation Epic Fury. The alliance is now more fractured than at any point since 1966.
The Iran Ceasefire: Trump's Victory Lap Is a Cover Story
The deal was built on Iran's 10-point plan. Calling that a win requires ignoring what the plan says.
China and Russia Kill the Hormuz Lifeline
Beijing and Moscow didn't veto a resolution protecting shipping. they vetoed the idea that the UN Security Council has any authority over a war they're quietly backing.