trade
48 briefs
Trump's Tariff Playbook Has One Move Left and It Also Got Struck Down
The Section 122 tariffs are the third legal theory Trump has tried to impose global duties -- and courts keep stopping each one while letting him keep collecting until further notice.
Trump Flies to Beijing Saying He Does Not Need Xi's Help -- Which Is How You Ask for Help
The US needs China to pressure Iran. China knows this. Markets put a 16% chance China actually joins Iran negotiations -- and an 88% chance it buys Boeing planes instead.
The Court Said the Tariffs Are Illegal. Importers Are Still Paying Them.
A federal trade court ruled Trump's 10% global surcharge unlawful. The same day, it agreed to let the government keep collecting while it appeals. 170,000 companies are funding a tariff the court just declared invalid.
The Summit Without a Spine
Trump flies to Beijing Tuesday. Both sides want stability. Neither side can say what they actually need from the other.
Trump Flies to Beijing Thinking He Has Leverage. China Disagrees.
China's rare earths card turned the October trade truce into a template Beijing plans to repeat. The May 14 summit will reveal who actually blinks.
The Summit That Has to Look Like Nothing
Trump and Xi have more to gain from a deal than from a standoff. The problem is neither can afford to say so.
China's Exports Hit a Monthly Record While Trump Is Flying to Beijing to Demand Concessions
China's April export surge was driven partly by buyers front-loading against Iran war supply disruptions. It also gives Xi Jinping a stronger hand at next week's summit than any tariff threat could have produced.
The Second Time a Court Killed Trump's Tariffs
The Court of International Trade struck down Trump's replacement 10% global tariffs. He appealed within 24 hours. The question is no longer whether courts will stop him, but whether it matters.
Trump Flies to Beijing With Iran in the Room
The Trump-Xi summit next week is nominally about trade and rare earths. Iran has turned it into a negotiation about who controls the ceasefire.
The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Is Starting to Pay Out
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, importers are getting real money back. The mechanics of that repayment expose exactly how much the policy cost.
Liberation Day Is One Year Old. Moody's Says It Did 'Significant Damage.' Courts Are About to Force Refunds.
Job growth stalled. Inflation stayed above target. The IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal. Polymarket gives 81.5% odds the courts force refunds by June. The White House calls it a success.
$175 Billion in Tariff Refunds Are Starting to Flow. The Fight Over Who Gets Them Is Just Beginning.
Large multinationals have customs teams ready. Small importers are still figuring out the portal. The money goes to whoever filed correctly, not to whoever paid the most.
Trump Is Going to Beijing. China Is Already Pricing the Trip.
Trump confirmed a mid-May summit with Xi in Beijing. China rolled out new trade rules that undercut US supply chain policy hours later. Iran is the card China is holding. Taiwan is the price.
The Tariffs Are Gone. The $166 Billion Refund Has Arrived. The Trade War Has Not Ended.
SCOTUS killed IEEPA tariffs in February. Trump is replacing them with Section 301 hearings starting this week. The destination is the same. Only the route changed.
The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Nobody Asked For
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs. The refund goes to importers. The consumers who paid higher prices get nothing.
Trump Tears Up the Turnberry Agreement
Raising EU auto tariffs to 25% doesn't just hit cars. It breaches a deal that also covers semiconductors, AI chips, and digital trade — the things the US most needs from Europe right now.
Trump Flies to Beijing. China Says Taiwan Is the Price of Admission.
Two weeks before the Trump-Xi summit, China's foreign minister told Rubio that Taiwan is the 'biggest risk' in the relationship — and the US side has not publicly disagreed.
Pay Iran or Face US Sanctions. Shipping Companies Must Choose.
The US has threatened to sanction any shipping firm that pays Iran's Strait of Hormuz transit tolls, while simultaneously describing its own seizure of Iranian cargo as 'very profitable.' The global maritime economy now has no legal path through the Strait.
The Special Relationship, Invoiced
UK exports to the US fell 25% after Liberation Day tariffs. Britain now runs a trade deficit with its largest trading partner. Polymarket says there is only a 22% chance of a deal before 2027.
China's New Trade Law Lets It Seize Foreign Assets. Trump Visits in Two Weeks.
Beijing quietly amended its Foreign Trade Law to authorize punishment of companies that reduce their business with China, just as US firms are quietly doing exactly that. The timing is not coincidental.
The Government Has to Return $166 Billion in Illegal Tariffs. Its Portal Is Rejecting 15% of Claims.
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs, the administration built a refund system and then quietly set it to deny one in seven valid claims. The first checks go out May 11.
US and China Trade Barbs Two Weeks Before the Summit. Both Sides Are Building Leverage, Not Trust.
Bessent calls Beijing's new supply chain rules 'provocative' on the same day He Lifeng voices 'solemn concern' over US trade measures. The Trump-Xi meeting is 15 days away.
The Tariff Laundering Operation
The Supreme Court killed Trump's tariffs in February. He is now rebuilding the same wall using legal authority the courts have traditionally not touched.
China Tells Europe: Pass the 'Made in Europe' Law and Pay the Price
Beijing threatened countermeasures against the EU's Industrial Accelerator Act the same week it added laws to punish companies for shifting supply chains away from China. Europe is being squeezed from both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously.
The $166 Billion Refund Nobody Can Actually Collect: The IEEPA Ruling's Unfinished Business
The Supreme Court killed Trump's Liberation Day tariffs in February. The refund process launched April 20. But 56,000 importers are chasing $127 billion through a new government portal, while Congress hagles over whether small businesses will ever see a dime.
$166 Billion Goes Back to Walmart. American Families Get Nothing.
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, the government is now refunding the money, and the legal structure guarantees that corporations receive every dollar while the consumers who bore the costs are locked out entirely.
Consumers Paid the Tariffs. Businesses Get the Refunds.
The Supreme Court struck down $166 billion in tariffs as unconstitutional. The refund portal opened Monday. Almost none of that money flows back to the households that actually bore the cost.
One Year of Trump Tariffs: The Numbers Are In
The Budget Lab at Yale finds 460,000 jobs lost and $1,700 per household per year. The administration says this proves the policy is working.
Trump Owes $159 Billion in Tariff Refunds. He Is Telling Companies Not to Collect.
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, CBP opened a refund portal, and Trump responded by publicly threatening companies that use it. The rule of law is now a political risk calculation.
Trump to Britain: Protect Apple or Pay Tariffs
The UK's digital services tax is not a trade dispute. It is a test of whether any US ally can tax American tech companies without US retaliation.
Washington and Brussels Just Signed an Anti-China Deal They Cannot Say Is Anti-China
The US-EU critical minerals memorandum of understanding targets supply chains 'dominated by non-market practices' and does not name China once.
The Tariff Refund Is a Bill, Not a Check
Businesses that passed tariff costs to consumers are now eligible for government refunds. Taxpayers pay twice and the money flows to companies that already made their customers whole.
The Free Trade Deal That Isn't Free Anymore
The USMCA review hits July 1 with a US Trade Representative telling Mexico its tariffs on steel, autos, and aluminum are staying. The agreement's survival now depends on what Mexico does with Chinese factories inside its borders.
The Government Is Mailing $166 Billion Back to Importers. Consumers Who Paid the Tariffs Get Nothing.
The refund portal is live. Only the companies that wrote the checks to Customs can claim. The people who actually absorbed the cost in higher prices are legally invisible.
India Comes to Washington to Renegotiate a Deal It Never Signed
Three-day talks in DC open today to restart the India-US bilateral trade agreement. India had agreed to major concessions under the old IEEPA tariff regime. The Supreme Court wiped out the baseline. Now New Delhi wants those concessions back.
The Largest Trade Refund in US History Goes to the Wrong People
The CAPE portal opened Monday for businesses to claim $127-166 billion in tariff refunds. Consumers who actually paid the higher prices get nothing.
Tariffs Ruled Illegal, Then Hiked to 15%
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional, so Trump raised them under a different legal theory.
The 90-Day Truce That Changes Nothing
The US and China rolled back their tariff war from 145% and 125% to 30% and 10% respectively. The deal expires in 90 days. Neither side agreed to anything structural.
Trump Says Tariffs Will Replace the Income Tax. The Math Doesn't Work. That's Not the Point.
The proposal is arithmetically impossible and legally requires Congress. It is doing its intended job anyway.
The $127 Billion Refund Nobody Will Receive
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Starting April 20, companies can apply for refunds. Most will not get them. Trump already has a backup plan.
The Government Is Refunding $127 Billion in Tariffs. It Plans to Collect Them Again by July.
The Supreme Court said IEEPA tariffs were illegal. CBP opens a refund portal on April 20. Treasury Secretary Bessent says replacement tariffs will be back at roughly the same levels by summer.
Tariffs Struck Down, Tariffs Coming Back
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency tariff powers unconstitutional. The administration is already routing around the ruling.
The Court Ordered $133 Billion Back. Now What?
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. A federal court ordered refunds. Trump is already testing a workaround using a different statute. The constitutional crisis is just starting.
Billions in Tariff Refunds Are Coming. Consumers Won't See a Dollar.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs and ordered $133 billion in refunds. A CFO survey found most companies plan to keep the money. 86% of CEOs now treat tariffs as permanent anyway.
Tariff Whack-a-Mole
After SCOTUS killed the IEEPA tariffs, Trump pivoted to Section 122. Now that too is before a federal court, and the question is whether any statutory authority can sustain his trade policy.
Trump's Backup Tariff Plan Is in Court. It Has a 150-Day Clock and a Dubious Legal Theory.
After the Supreme Court killed his IEEPA tariffs in February, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act. The new 10% global levy requires a real 'balance-of-payments deficit' and expires in 150 days. Both conditions are working against him.
The Court Took Away the President's Tariff Gun. He's Already Looking for Another One.
SCOTUS killed $166 billion in tariffs in February. By April, Trump was threatening new 50% levies with no named legal authority.
The $166 Billion Tax Nobody Gets Back
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal. American businesses and families paid $166 billion. One year later, the government has not issued a single refund. and is imposing new tariffs to replace the overturned ones.