inflation
10 briefs
The IMF Abandoned Its Baseline
When the world's economic referee stops issuing forecasts and starts issuing warnings, that is the forecast.
Tariffs Struck Down, Tariffs Coming Back
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency tariff powers unconstitutional. The administration is already routing around the ruling.
He Said It Was Defeated
In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.
War Tax at the Pump
The Iran war produced the largest single-month US price spike in four years. The Federal Reserve cannot fix a supply shock, and Polymarket is pricing April inflation at 3.5-3.7%. Nobody in Washington is explaining who actually pays.
Two Drug Prices at Once
Trump is simultaneously threatening 100% tariffs on brand-name drugs that do not cut prices and expanding Medicare's power to negotiate drug prices downward. These are opposite levers. One of them is a bluff.
China's Deflation Is Over. The Replacement Is Worse.
After 41 months of falling factory prices, China's PPI turned positive in March. The cause is not demand recovery. It is a war in Iran driving up energy costs that Chinese manufacturers cannot pass on to consumers who are not buying.
The Fed Is Trapped Between a War and the Economy It Has to Protect
March CPI hit 3.3% on an Iran-war energy shock that the Fed did not cause and cannot stop. Rate cuts are now off the table. Rate hikes would crush a fragile recovery. There is no good option.
The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year
Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.