interest rates
34 briefs
Inflation Just Crossed Above the Fed's Policy Rate for the First Time in Three Years
April CPI at 3.78% now exceeds the 3.64% Fed funds rate, turning real policy rates negative -- and the Fed's incoming chair has signaled no urgency to respond.
The Inflation Number Lands Three Days Before the New Fed Chair Does
April CPI is expected at 3.8%, a 3-year high. Kevin Warsh takes over Friday. His first decision will be whether to pretend the last five years didn't happen.
The Fed Is Stuck. Iran Is Why.
Oil at $104. Inflation at 3.3%. April CPI drops tomorrow. PIMCO warns that the war in Iran has made the Fed's next move a trap with no clean exit.
Powell's Last Days
The Fed chair's departure is essentially priced in at 95%. What comes next is the part that matters.
Trump Got His Fed Chair. He May Get Rate Hikes.
Kevin Warsh spent a year promising he would cut rates. Then the Iran war made that impossible. Now the only question is how high rates go.
Trump Installed a Fed Chair Who Wants to Cut Rates. The Economy Will Not Let Him.
Kevin Warsh arrives at the Federal Reserve next week having promised rate cuts. Inflation is at 3.3%, the April jobs report beat forecasts by nearly double, and Paul Tudor Jones says there is no chance Warsh can deliver. Someone is going to be wrong about this.
Powell's Last Meeting. Four Dissents. And Warsh Waiting.
The Fed's most divided vote since 1992 revealed a central bank that no longer agrees on what it is supposed to do. The incoming chair inherits the contradiction.
Trump Started a War That Is Preventing the Rate Cuts He Wants
The Iran war has created an oil-driven inflation shock that is pushing the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes, the opposite of everything Trump has demanded for two years.
Trump Is Getting the Fed He Wanted. The Question Is What He'll Do With It.
Kevin Warsh clears the Senate Banking Committee 13-11 and takes over from Powell on May 15. The Fed he inherits is more divided than it has been in decades, and the economy is the opposite of what Trump promised Warsh would fix.
The Bond Market Thinks Warsh Will Hike Before He Cuts
Trump wants cheaper money. His Fed pick may deliver the opposite. And neither man is fully wrong.
Powell's Last Meeting Split the Fed Four Ways
The FOMC held rates at its April 29 meeting, but four officials voted against the statement. Three opposed a cut signal. One wanted a cut now. The institution is publicly fractured heading into the Warsh era.
The Fed Has No Move. That Is Now the Official Position.
Four dissents, a lame-duck chair, and a war pushing oil prices up while jobs cool. The central bank that cannot cut is also the one that cannot raise.
Four Fed Officials Broke With Powell at His Last Meeting. That's the Story.
The biggest FOMC dissent since 1992 wasn't about rates. It was about whether the Fed can still pretend the next move is obviously a cut.
The US Economy Grew 2% While Consumers Ran Out of Cushion
GDP beat the shutdown slump. Business investment in AI is surging. Inflation hit a three-year high. Real wages are flat. The Fed is frozen. These are not contradictions. They describe the same economy from different floors.
Powell's Last Stand: The Fed Holds Rates and Its Ground
Jerome Powell holds rates steady in what is expected to be his final meeting as Fed chair, warning that legal attacks are 'battering' the institution.
Kevin Warsh Clears Senate Banking Committee. The Fed's Independence Window Is Closing.
The party-line 13-11 vote advances a nominee who pledged Fed independence but whose confirmation is a direct reward for Trump's months-long pressure campaign against Powell.
Jerome Powell's Last Stand
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at Powell's final scheduled meeting as chair. The real question is what happens to the institution after he is gone.
Kevin Warsh Clears the Senate. The Real Question Is What He Does First.
With confirmation odds at 98.9%, the debate about who chairs the Fed is over. The debate about whether the Fed can still function independently has just started.
Powell's Last Stand: The Fed Chair Who Can't Cut Passes the Baton to Someone Who Won't
Jerome Powell presides over his final FOMC meeting this week as the man set to replace him promises a harder line on inflation. The regime change at the Fed is not about rates. It is about who controls the institution.
The Fed Gets a New Chair Who Promised 'Regime Change'
Kevin Warsh's path to the Federal Reserve clears after the DOJ drops its Powell probe, but his plan to cut rates collides directly with an oil shock he never accounted for.
The Man Trump Picked to Run the Fed Says He Won't Do What Trump Wants
Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing produced the predictable pledges of independence. The predictable part is the problem: every Fed nominee says this, and the chair who actually defies a sitting president has not yet existed.
The Fed Chair Who Won't Say What He Thinks
Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing confirmed one thing: he has no intention of telling Congress, or the markets, what he will actually do.
Business Is Growing. Prices Are Growing Faster.
April's flash PMI hit a 47-month high for manufacturing. It also logged the fastest input price inflation since 2022. Both facts are true. The Fed cannot act on either one.
Trump Wants Rate Cuts. His Own Nominee Says He Can't Have Them.
Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation hearing exposed a trap: he was picked to cut rates into a war-driven inflation surge that makes cutting impossible.
Trump's Fed Pick Swore He Wouldn't Be Trump's 'Sock Puppet.' That's Exactly What a Sock Puppet Would Say.
Kevin Warsh cleared his confirmation hearing by pledging strict Fed independence. The question is whether a nominee who owes his job to presidential pressure can deliver independence once confirmed.
Kevin Warsh Goes Before the Senate Promising Independence He May Not Be Able to Deliver
Trump's Fed pick is vowing to protect central bank autonomy while depending entirely on Trump's party to get confirmed. The contradiction is the point.
The Fed's New Chair Will Inherit a Trap
Kevin Warsh faces his Senate confirmation hearing Tuesday as Trump demands rate cuts, oil spikes, and inflation shows no signs of cooperating.
The Fed Is in a Box It Has Not Been in Since 1979. This Time the Shocks Are Compounding.
War, tariffs, and an oil supply squeeze are hitting simultaneously. The Federal Reserve has a mandate to fight inflation and support employment. It cannot do both at once. Markets are pretending it can.
The Fed's War Hostage
Governor Waller said rate cuts are possible if the Iran war ends quickly. It may not end quickly. The Fed is now making monetary policy based on a military outcome it cannot predict or influence.
Trump's Last Move on the Fed
Powell's term ends May 15. Trump says he will fire him if he stays on. Markets are pricing a 78% chance Powell is gone by June 30. What they are not pricing is what comes after.
The Fed Nominee Who Owns What He Would Regulate
Kevin Warsh disclosed holdings in crypto and AI firms before his Senate hearing. The real question is not his investments. It is whether he will cut rates in a stagflation environment to satisfy the man who nominated him.
Trump Threatens to Fire Powell. The Market Says He Won't Get What He Wants Either Way.
The Federal Reserve chair's term ends May 15, but his replacement can't get confirmed, a criminal investigation is blocking the vote, and Powell says he's staying. No one is getting a rate cut.
The Fed Is Trapped Between a War and the Economy It Has to Protect
March CPI hit 3.3% on an Iran-war energy shock that the Fed did not cause and cannot stop. Rate cuts are now off the table. Rate hikes would crush a fragile recovery. There is no good option.
The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year
Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.