Federal Reserve
7 briefs
The AI That Can Break Into Banks Exists. The Rules to Stop It Don't.
Anthropic's Mythos model completed a full enterprise network breach in simulation and scored 73% on expert cyberattack tasks. No one outside Anthropic can access it. No regulator has authority over it.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
Trump Threatens to Fire Powell. The Market Says He Won't Get What He Wants Either Way.
The Federal Reserve chair's term ends May 15, but his replacement can't get confirmed, a criminal investigation is blocking the vote, and Powell says he's staying. No one is getting a rate cut.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.
War Tax at the Pump
The Iran war produced the largest single-month US price spike in four years. The Federal Reserve cannot fix a supply shock, and Polymarket is pricing April inflation at 3.5-3.7%. Nobody in Washington is explaining who actually pays.
The Fed Is Trapped Between a War and the Economy It Has to Protect
March CPI hit 3.3% on an Iran-war energy shock that the Fed did not cause and cannot stop. Rate cuts are now off the table. Rate hikes would crush a fragile recovery. There is no good option.
The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year
Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.