Federal Reserve
28 briefs
The Fed Is Stuck. Iran Is Why.
Oil at $104. Inflation at 3.3%. April CPI drops tomorrow. PIMCO warns that the war in Iran has made the Fed's next move a trap with no clean exit.
Powell's Last Days
The Fed chair's departure is essentially priced in at 95%. What comes next is the part that matters.
Trump Installed a Fed Chair Who Wants to Cut Rates. The Economy Will Not Let Him.
Kevin Warsh arrives at the Federal Reserve next week having promised rate cuts. Inflation is at 3.3%, the April jobs report beat forecasts by nearly double, and Paul Tudor Jones says there is no chance Warsh can deliver. Someone is going to be wrong about this.
Trump Started a War That Is Preventing the Rate Cuts He Wants
The Iran war has created an oil-driven inflation shock that is pushing the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes, the opposite of everything Trump has demanded for two years.
Trump Is Getting the Fed He Wanted. The Question Is What He'll Do With It.
Kevin Warsh clears the Senate Banking Committee 13-11 and takes over from Powell on May 15. The Fed he inherits is more divided than it has been in decades, and the economy is the opposite of what Trump promised Warsh would fix.
Powell's Last Meeting Split the Fed Four Ways
The FOMC held rates at its April 29 meeting, but four officials voted against the statement. Three opposed a cut signal. One wanted a cut now. The institution is publicly fractured heading into the Warsh era.
The Fed Has No Move. That Is Now the Official Position.
Four dissents, a lame-duck chair, and a war pushing oil prices up while jobs cool. The central bank that cannot cut is also the one that cannot raise.
Four Fed Officials Broke With Powell at His Last Meeting. That's the Story.
The biggest FOMC dissent since 1992 wasn't about rates. It was about whether the Fed can still pretend the next move is obviously a cut.
Kevin Warsh Clears Senate Banking Committee. The Fed's Independence Window Is Closing.
The party-line 13-11 vote advances a nominee who pledged Fed independence but whose confirmation is a direct reward for Trump's months-long pressure campaign against Powell.
Jerome Powell's Last Stand
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at Powell's final scheduled meeting as chair. The real question is what happens to the institution after he is gone.
The Fed Gets a New Chair Who Promised 'Regime Change'
Kevin Warsh's path to the Federal Reserve clears after the DOJ drops its Powell probe, but his plan to cut rates collides directly with an oil shock he never accounted for.
The Man Trump Picked to Run the Fed Says He Won't Do What Trump Wants
Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing produced the predictable pledges of independence. The predictable part is the problem: every Fed nominee says this, and the chair who actually defies a sitting president has not yet existed.
The Fed Chair Who Won't Say What He Thinks
Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing confirmed one thing: he has no intention of telling Congress, or the markets, what he will actually do.
Trump Wants Rate Cuts. His Own Nominee Says He Can't Have Them.
Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation hearing exposed a trap: he was picked to cut rates into a war-driven inflation surge that makes cutting impossible.
Trump's Fed Pick Swore He Wouldn't Be Trump's 'Sock Puppet.' That's Exactly What a Sock Puppet Would Say.
Kevin Warsh cleared his confirmation hearing by pledging strict Fed independence. The question is whether a nominee who owes his job to presidential pressure can deliver independence once confirmed.
The OECD Says Tariffs Pushed US Inflation to 4.2 Percent. The Market Does Not Believe a Recession Is Coming.
Every major forecasting institution is revising US growth down and inflation up, attributing both directly to tariffs. Polymarket still prices a recession at 24.5%. One of them is badly wrong.
Kevin Warsh Goes Before the Senate Promising Independence He May Not Be Able to Deliver
Trump's Fed pick is vowing to protect central bank autonomy while depending entirely on Trump's party to get confirmed. The contradiction is the point.
The Fed Is in a Box It Has Not Been in Since 1979. This Time the Shocks Are Compounding.
War, tariffs, and an oil supply squeeze are hitting simultaneously. The Federal Reserve has a mandate to fight inflation and support employment. It cannot do both at once. Markets are pretending it can.
The Fed's War Hostage
Governor Waller said rate cuts are possible if the Iran war ends quickly. It may not end quickly. The Fed is now making monetary policy based on a military outcome it cannot predict or influence.
The Fed Nominee Who Owns What He Would Regulate
Kevin Warsh disclosed holdings in crypto and AI firms before his Senate hearing. The real question is not his investments. It is whether he will cut rates in a stagflation environment to satisfy the man who nominated him.
Trump Says He'll Fire Powell Even After the Chair Term Ends. The Market Is Betting He Won't.
Trump threatened to remove Powell not just as chair but as a Fed governor. Polymarket says 8.5% chance he actually does it by June. The gap between the threat and the market reveals the real bet.
The AI That Can Break Into Banks Exists. The Rules to Stop It Don't.
Anthropic's Mythos model completed a full enterprise network breach in simulation and scored 73% on expert cyberattack tasks. No one outside Anthropic can access it. No regulator has authority over it.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
Trump Threatens to Fire Powell. The Market Says He Won't Get What He Wants Either Way.
The Federal Reserve chair's term ends May 15, but his replacement can't get confirmed, a criminal investigation is blocking the vote, and Powell says he's staying. No one is getting a rate cut.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.
War Tax at the Pump
The Iran war produced the largest single-month US price spike in four years. The Federal Reserve cannot fix a supply shock, and Polymarket is pricing April inflation at 3.5-3.7%. Nobody in Washington is explaining who actually pays.
The Fed Is Trapped Between a War and the Economy It Has to Protect
March CPI hit 3.3% on an Iran-war energy shock that the Fed did not cause and cannot stop. Rate cuts are now off the table. Rate hikes would crush a fragile recovery. There is no good option.
The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year
Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.