recession
6 briefs
The IMF Abandoned Its Baseline
When the world's economic referee stops issuing forecasts and starts issuing warnings, that is the forecast.
The IMF Is Describing a Recession. Bessent Is Calling It a Strategy.
The IMF cut global growth forecasts and warned the Iran war could tip the world into recession. The US Treasury Secretary told the BBC the pain is worth it.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
The Spring Housing Market Is Dead. Oil at $115 Killed It.
Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March. The NAR slashed its 2026 forecast from 14% growth to 4%. The Iran war doubled oil prices and pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, and now the most important homebuying season of the year is starting cold.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.
The War That Came Home at the Pump
American consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point on record. The cause is not the stock market. It is the price of gas, and gas is expensive because of a war the administration started.