recession
14 briefs
The Labor Market That Cannot Be Described in One Sentence
Jobless claims hit a 1969 low the same month Meta laid off 8,000 people and Amazon is cutting 16,000. The April payrolls report on Friday will not resolve this contradiction.
US Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low. Economists Say the Real Pain Is Still Coming.
At 189,000, initial claims are the lowest since September 1969. Analysts say tariffs and Iran war costs haven't hit payrolls yet, but they will.
Inflation Hits a 3-Year High. The Fed Cannot Cut. The Strait Is Still Closed.
The PCE gauge jumped to 3.5% in March as the Iran war pushed gas prices to record highs. The Fed is trapped: it cannot cut into rising inflation and cannot raise into a 2% GDP economy.
Consumer Confidence Just Hit Its Lowest Point Since Records Began
The University of Michigan index dropped to 49.8, breaking a 74-year-old floor. The war with Iran is the immediate cause. The structural damage started before the first missile was fired.
The OECD Says Tariffs Pushed US Inflation to 4.2 Percent. The Market Does Not Believe a Recession Is Coming.
Every major forecasting institution is revising US growth down and inflation up, attributing both directly to tariffs. Polymarket still prices a recession at 24.5%. One of them is badly wrong.
Oil Companies Celebrated Trump. Now They Are Watching WTI Drop 9% in a Day.
Energy Secretary Wright admitted gas might not fall below $3 until 2027. WTI crude dropped 9.6% Sunday. The 'drill baby drill' coalition is discovering that war in the Middle East and Trump's tariff-driven recession fears are worse for energy markets than any Biden regulation.
The Fed's War Hostage
Governor Waller said rate cuts are possible if the Iran war ends quickly. It may not end quickly. The Fed is now making monetary policy based on a military outcome it cannot predict or influence.
178,000 Jobs and a Recession Incoming
March added three times more jobs than anyone expected. Economists say a recession is coming anyway. Both are true, and what reconciles them is the part nobody wants to explain.
The IMF Abandoned Its Baseline
When the world's economic referee stops issuing forecasts and starts issuing warnings, that is the forecast.
The IMF Is Describing a Recession. Bessent Is Calling It a Strategy.
The IMF cut global growth forecasts and warned the Iran war could tip the world into recession. The US Treasury Secretary told the BBC the pain is worth it.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
The Spring Housing Market Is Dead. Oil at $115 Killed It.
Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March. The NAR slashed its 2026 forecast from 14% growth to 4%. The Iran war doubled oil prices and pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, and now the most important homebuying season of the year is starting cold.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.
The War That Came Home at the Pump
American consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point on record. The cause is not the stock market. It is the price of gas, and gas is expensive because of a war the administration started.