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monetary policy

9 briefs

decision 2026-05-13

Inflation Just Crossed Above the Fed's Policy Rate for the First Time in Three Years

April CPI at 3.78% now exceeds the 3.64% Fed funds rate, turning real policy rates negative -- and the Fed's incoming chair has signaled no urgency to respond.

power 2026-05-10

Trump Got His Fed Chair. He May Get Rate Hikes.

Kevin Warsh spent a year promising he would cut rates. Then the Iran war made that impossible. Now the only question is how high rates go.

power 2026-05-07

Trump Is Getting the Fed He Wanted. The Question Is What He'll Do With It.

Kevin Warsh clears the Senate Banking Committee 13-11 and takes over from Powell on May 15. The Fed he inherits is more divided than it has been in decades, and the economy is the opposite of what Trump promised Warsh would fix.

decision 2026-05-06

The Bond Market Thinks Warsh Will Hike Before He Cuts

Trump wants cheaper money. His Fed pick may deliver the opposite. And neither man is fully wrong.

power 2026-05-05

Powell's Last Meeting Split the Fed Four Ways

The FOMC held rates at its April 29 meeting, but four officials voted against the statement. Three opposed a cut signal. One wanted a cut now. The institution is publicly fractured heading into the Warsh era.

power 2026-04-26

The Fed Gets a New Chair Who Promised 'Regime Change'

Kevin Warsh's path to the Federal Reserve clears after the DOJ drops its Powell probe, but his plan to cut rates collides directly with an oil shock he never accounted for.

power 2026-04-25

The Man Trump Picked to Run the Fed Says He Won't Do What Trump Wants

Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing produced the predictable pledges of independence. The predictable part is the problem: every Fed nominee says this, and the chair who actually defies a sitting president has not yet existed.

power 2026-04-22

Trump's Fed Pick Swore He Wouldn't Be Trump's 'Sock Puppet.' That's Exactly What a Sock Puppet Would Say.

Kevin Warsh cleared his confirmation hearing by pledging strict Fed independence. The question is whether a nominee who owes his job to presidential pressure can deliver independence once confirmed.

power 2026-04-21

Kevin Warsh Goes Before the Senate Promising Independence He May Not Be Able to Deliver

Trump's Fed pick is vowing to protect central bank autonomy while depending entirely on Trump's party to get confirmed. The contradiction is the point.