Fed
24 briefs
Inflation Just Crossed Above the Fed's Policy Rate for the First Time in Three Years
April CPI at 3.78% now exceeds the 3.64% Fed funds rate, turning real policy rates negative -- and the Fed's incoming chair has signaled no urgency to respond.
The Inflation Number Lands Three Days Before the New Fed Chair Does
April CPI is expected at 3.8%, a 3-year high. Kevin Warsh takes over Friday. His first decision will be whether to pretend the last five years didn't happen.
Trump Got His Fed Chair. He May Get Rate Hikes.
Kevin Warsh spent a year promising he would cut rates. Then the Iran war made that impossible. Now the only question is how high rates go.
115,000 Jobs in April. The Iran War Hasn't Hit the Labor Market. Yet.
April payrolls nearly doubled economist forecasts despite $4.50 gas and the biggest oil shock since 2022. Either the economy is genuinely resilient, or the damage is still in transit.
Powell's Last Meeting. Four Dissents. And Warsh Waiting.
The Fed's most divided vote since 1992 revealed a central bank that no longer agrees on what it is supposed to do. The incoming chair inherits the contradiction.
Wall Street Stopped Betting on a Quick Iran Deal. Markets Are Priced for a Long War.
The TACO trade assumed Trump would fold on Iran. The NACHO trade assumes he won't. The switch reveals something markets are only now pricing honestly.
The Jobs Market Looks Fine. The Hiring Market Doesn't.
Tomorrow's April payrolls report will likely show near-zero job creation alongside a stable unemployment rate. This is not a healthy labor market. It is a frozen one, and the Iran oil shock is the reason it cannot thaw.
The Bond Market Thinks Warsh Will Hike Before He Cuts
Trump wants cheaper money. His Fed pick may deliver the opposite. And neither man is fully wrong.
The Labor Market That Cannot Be Described in One Sentence
Jobless claims hit a 1969 low the same month Meta laid off 8,000 people and Amazon is cutting 16,000. The April payrolls report on Friday will not resolve this contradiction.
The Dollar Is Down 10%. Nobody Agrees on What That Means.
A weaker dollar helps multinationals, hurts consumers, and is quietly accelerating a structural shift that America's foreign policy depends on stopping.
The US Economy Grew 2% While Consumers Ran Out of Cushion
GDP beat the shutdown slump. Business investment in AI is surging. Inflation hit a three-year high. Real wages are flat. The Fed is frozen. These are not contradictions. They describe the same economy from different floors.
US Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low. Economists Say the Real Pain Is Still Coming.
At 189,000, initial claims are the lowest since September 1969. Analysts say tariffs and Iran war costs haven't hit payrolls yet, but they will.
Inflation Hits a 3-Year High. The Fed Cannot Cut. The Strait Is Still Closed.
The PCE gauge jumped to 3.5% in March as the Iran war pushed gas prices to record highs. The Fed is trapped: it cannot cut into rising inflation and cannot raise into a 2% GDP economy.
Powell's Last Stand: The Fed Holds Rates and Its Ground
Jerome Powell holds rates steady in what is expected to be his final meeting as Fed chair, warning that legal attacks are 'battering' the institution.
Kevin Warsh Clears the Senate. The Real Question Is What He Does First.
With confirmation odds at 98.9%, the debate about who chairs the Fed is over. The debate about whether the Fed can still function independently has just started.
Powell's Last Stand: The Fed Chair Who Can't Cut Passes the Baton to Someone Who Won't
Jerome Powell presides over his final FOMC meeting this week as the man set to replace him promises a harder line on inflation. The regime change at the Fed is not about rates. It is about who controls the institution.
Business Is Growing. Prices Are Growing Faster.
April's flash PMI hit a 47-month high for manufacturing. It also logged the fastest input price inflation since 2022. Both facts are true. The Fed cannot act on either one.
The Fed's New Chair Will Inherit a Trap
Kevin Warsh faces his Senate confirmation hearing Tuesday as Trump demands rate cuts, oil spikes, and inflation shows no signs of cooperating.
The Fed's War Hostage
Governor Waller said rate cuts are possible if the Iran war ends quickly. It may not end quickly. The Fed is now making monetary policy based on a military outcome it cannot predict or influence.
178,000 Jobs and a Recession Incoming
March added three times more jobs than anyone expected. Economists say a recession is coming anyway. Both are true, and what reconciles them is the part nobody wants to explain.
Trump's Last Move on the Fed
Powell's term ends May 15. Trump says he will fire him if he stays on. Markets are pricing a 78% chance Powell is gone by June 30. What they are not pricing is what comes after.
He Said It Was Defeated
In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.
The Spring Housing Market Is Dead. Oil at $115 Killed It.
Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March. The NAR slashed its 2026 forecast from 14% growth to 4%. The Iran war doubled oil prices and pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, and now the most important homebuying season of the year is starting cold.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.