economy
17 briefs
China's Factory Prices Just Hit a 45-Month High. The Iran War Did It, and Beijing Cannot Undo It.
China's PPI jumped 2.8% in April, ending 41 months of factory deflation. Cost-push inflation from Iranian oil disruptions is pressuring manufacturer margins in an economy where domestic demand is still weak.
Trump Installed a Fed Chair Who Wants to Cut Rates. The Economy Will Not Let Him.
Kevin Warsh arrives at the Federal Reserve next week having promised rate cuts. Inflation is at 3.3%, the April jobs report beat forecasts by nearly double, and Paul Tudor Jones says there is no chance Warsh can deliver. Someone is going to be wrong about this.
115,000 Jobs in April. The Iran War Hasn't Hit the Labor Market. Yet.
April payrolls nearly doubled economist forecasts despite $4.50 gas and the biggest oil shock since 2022. Either the economy is genuinely resilient, or the damage is still in transit.
Liberation Day Is One Year Old. Moody's Says It Did 'Significant Damage.' Courts Are About to Force Refunds.
Job growth stalled. Inflation stayed above target. The IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal. Polymarket gives 81.5% odds the courts force refunds by June. The White House calls it a success.
The Special Relationship, Invoiced
UK exports to the US fell 25% after Liberation Day tariffs. Britain now runs a trade deficit with its largest trading partner. Polymarket says there is only a 22% chance of a deal before 2027.
The US Economy Grew 2% While Consumers Ran Out of Cushion
GDP beat the shutdown slump. Business investment in AI is surging. Inflation hit a three-year high. Real wages are flat. The Fed is frozen. These are not contradictions. They describe the same economy from different floors.
US Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low. Economists Say the Real Pain Is Still Coming.
At 189,000, initial claims are the lowest since September 1969. Analysts say tariffs and Iran war costs haven't hit payrolls yet, but they will.
Canada's Sovereign Debt Fund
Mark Carney announced a sovereign wealth fund this week. Norway built its fund from oil surpluses. Canada plans to build its fund from borrowed money. Those are not the same thing.
The $166 Billion Refund Nobody Can Actually Collect: The IEEPA Ruling's Unfinished Business
The Supreme Court killed Trump's Liberation Day tariffs in February. The refund process launched April 20. But 56,000 importers are chasing $127 billion through a new government portal, while Congress hagles over whether small businesses will ever see a dime.
One Year of Trump Tariffs: The Numbers Are In
The Budget Lab at Yale finds 460,000 jobs lost and $1,700 per household per year. The administration says this proves the policy is working.
Consumer Confidence Just Hit Its Lowest Point Since Records Began
The University of Michigan index dropped to 49.8, breaking a 74-year-old floor. The war with Iran is the immediate cause. The structural damage started before the first missile was fired.
The OECD Says Tariffs Pushed US Inflation to 4.2 Percent. The Market Does Not Believe a Recession Is Coming.
Every major forecasting institution is revising US growth down and inflation up, attributing both directly to tariffs. Polymarket still prices a recession at 24.5%. One of them is badly wrong.
178,000 Jobs and a Recession Incoming
March added three times more jobs than anyone expected. Economists say a recession is coming anyway. Both are true, and what reconciles them is the part nobody wants to explain.
The 48 Percent Question
Tech companies cut 78,557 jobs in Q1 2026 and blamed 48 percent of them on AI. That number is probably wrong in two different directions at once.
He Said It Was Defeated
In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.
The War That Came Home at the Pump
American consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point on record. The cause is not the stock market. It is the price of gas, and gas is expensive because of a war the administration started.
China's Deflation Is Over. The Replacement Is Worse.
After 41 months of falling factory prices, China's PPI turned positive in March. The cause is not demand recovery. It is a war in Iran driving up energy costs that Chinese manufacturers cannot pass on to consumers who are not buying.