UK elections

2 briefs

power 2026-05-02

The SNP Is Almost Certainly Going to Win Scotland. The Question Is What Scotland Wins.

Polymarket puts SNP at 99.45% to win the most Holyrood seats. But the SNP enters the election defending a decade of governance failures, a £5 billion budget gap, and an independence movement that has stalled. Winning the election and winning the argument are different things.

power 2026-05-02

Reform Is Set to Win the Most Council Seats. Britain's Two-Party System Just Broke.

Thursday's UK local elections are the first test of whether Reform's poll lead translates into power. Polymarket says 87.9% chance they win the most seats. Labour could lose three-quarters of theirs.