stagflation
9 briefs
Powell's Last Meeting. Four Dissents. And Warsh Waiting.
The Fed's most divided vote since 1992 revealed a central bank that no longer agrees on what it is supposed to do. The incoming chair inherits the contradiction.
The IMF Says 2027 Could Be Much Worse. Nobody Is Planning for It.
IMF chief Georgieva warned that if the Iran war extends into 2027, global growth falls to 2.5% and inflation hits 5.4%. The adverse scenario is already partially in motion.
The Fed Has No Move. That Is Now the Official Position.
Four dissents, a lame-duck chair, and a war pushing oil prices up while jobs cool. The central bank that cannot cut is also the one that cannot raise.
Four Fed Officials Broke With Powell at His Last Meeting. That's the Story.
The biggest FOMC dissent since 1992 wasn't about rates. It was about whether the Fed can still pretend the next move is obviously a cut.
The Fed Is in a Box It Has Not Been in Since 1979. This Time the Shocks Are Compounding.
War, tariffs, and an oil supply squeeze are hitting simultaneously. The Federal Reserve has a mandate to fight inflation and support employment. It cannot do both at once. Markets are pretending it can.
He Said It Was Defeated
In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
The Fed Has No Good Options Left
A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.