stagflation

4 briefs

decision 2026-04-16

He Said It Was Defeated

In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.

power 2026-04-15

The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.

The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.

decision 2026-04-14

The Fed Has No Good Options Left

A Federal Reserve study confirms tariffs drove 3.1% cumulative inflation. Consumer spending is holding. Growth is stalling. The Fed cannot cut rates into a supply shock without making it worse.

decision 2026-04-13

The Central Bank in the Box

With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.