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8 briefs

decision 2026-05-08

115,000 Jobs in April. The Iran War Hasn't Hit the Labor Market. Yet.

April payrolls nearly doubled economist forecasts despite $4.50 gas and the biggest oil shock since 2022. Either the economy is genuinely resilient, or the damage is still in transit.

power 2026-05-07

The Jobs Market Looks Fine. The Hiring Market Doesn't.

Tomorrow's April payrolls report will likely show near-zero job creation alongside a stable unemployment rate. This is not a healthy labor market. It is a frozen one, and the Iran oil shock is the reason it cannot thaw.

decision 2026-05-04

The Labor Market That Cannot Be Described in One Sentence

Jobless claims hit a 1969 low the same month Meta laid off 8,000 people and Amazon is cutting 16,000. The April payrolls report on Friday will not resolve this contradiction.

decision 2026-04-30

Amazon Fires 30,000. Then Announces 11,000 New Hires. The CEO Says AI Isn't Replacing Anyone.

The numbers don't add up on purpose: Amazon is running two contradictory stories simultaneously because each one serves a different audience.

decision 2026-04-30

Big Tech Earns More, Spends More on AI. Meta Investors Revolt.

Alphabet's 63% cloud growth and 30% profit surge contrast sharply with Meta's share drop after raising AI capex to $145 billion with no clear payoff plan.

decision 2026-04-30

US Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low. Economists Say the Real Pain Is Still Coming.

At 189,000, initial claims are the lowest since September 1969. Analysts say tariffs and Iran war costs haven't hit payrolls yet, but they will.

power 2026-04-25

One Year of Trump Tariffs: The Numbers Are In

The Budget Lab at Yale finds 460,000 jobs lost and $1,700 per household per year. The administration says this proves the policy is working.

decision 2026-04-18

178,000 Jobs and a Recession Incoming

March added three times more jobs than anyone expected. Economists say a recession is coming anyway. Both are true, and what reconciles them is the part nobody wants to explain.