Iran ceasefire

2 briefs

power 2026-04-09

The Prediction Market Got the Ceasefire Right. The Question Is How.

Four freshly created Polymarket wallets placed $663,000 in bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before Trump announced it, at odds as low as 2.9%. Either someone had inside information, or the world's most liquid political betting market got very lucky.

conflict 2026-04-09

Zelensky Is Using the Iran Deal as a Mirror. Russia Doesn't Like What It Sees.

Ukraine's president publicly praised the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and immediately demanded Russia accept the same framework. It is the most sophisticated diplomatic move Zelensky has made in two years, and it works whether or not Russia agrees.