IMF
5 briefs
The IMF Abandoned Its Baseline
When the world's economic referee stops issuing forecasts and starts issuing warnings, that is the forecast.
The IMF Is Describing a Recession. Bessent Is Calling It a Strategy.
The IMF cut global growth forecasts and warned the Iran war could tip the world into recession. The US Treasury Secretary told the BBC the pain is worth it.
He Said It Was Defeated
In January, Trump told G7 leaders inflation was beaten. The IMF now projects the US will have the worst inflation of any G7 country in 2026.
The Iran War Is Costing the World Enough to Buy a Recession. Nobody Is Presenting the Bill.
The IMF says the war has already erased gains from the AI boom and is pushing the world toward its adverse scenario. The markets price a 28.5% chance of US recession. The price is rising.
The Central Bank in the Box
With Brent crude at $118 and physical oil touching $149, the Fed faces the only scenario its playbook cannot handle: inflation it cannot fight and growth it cannot save.