geopolitics

4 briefs

power 2026-05-13

China Did Not Fight in the Iran War. It May Have Won It Anyway.

The CFR and Times of India both say the same thing: Beijing watched the US burn through stockpiles, studied its weaknesses, and walked into the Trump summit holding a much stronger Taiwan hand than it had before the war started.

power 2026-05-03

China Just Made US Sanctions on Iran Unenforceable. Legally. In Writing.

Beijing issued a formal ban ordering Chinese companies not to comply with US sanctions on five Chinese refineries buying Iranian oil. This is not defiance through inaction. It is defiance by decree.

power 2026-04-30

UAE Quits OPEC After 60 Years, and Saudi Arabia Has No Answer

Abu Dhabi's defection doesn't change oil prices today, but it signals that the cartel's era of shared discipline is over.

power 2026-04-08

Iran's 10-Point Plan and the Coerced Ceasefire

A hostage exchange disguised as diplomacy. both sides are trading things they can't afford to lose.