prediction markets

2 briefs

power 2026-05-06

The Senate Banned Prediction Markets in Hours. It Has Never Managed to Ban Stock Trading.

Senators passed a unanimous rule banning themselves from Polymarket and Kalshi in a single day. The same body has failed for years to pass stock trading restrictions. The asymmetry is not an accident.

power 2026-04-09

The Prediction Market Got the Ceasefire Right. The Question Is How.

Four freshly created Polymarket wallets placed $663,000 in bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before Trump announced it, at odds as low as 2.9%. Either someone had inside information, or the world's most liquid political betting market got very lucky.