markets

2 briefs

decision 2026-05-08

Wall Street Stopped Betting on a Quick Iran Deal. Markets Are Priced for a Long War.

The TACO trade assumed Trump would fold on Iran. The NACHO trade assumes he won't. The switch reveals something markets are only now pricing honestly.

decision 2026-04-09

The Ceasefire Did What the Fed Couldn't: Repriced the Entire Year

Oil crashed 18% overnight and Fed rate-cut odds doubled. But the Strait is still closed, March CPI is still coming, and nobody knows if this ceasefire holds.