insider trading

3 briefs

power 2026-05-06

The Senate Banned Prediction Markets in Hours. It Has Never Managed to Ban Stock Trading.

Senators passed a unanimous rule banning themselves from Polymarket and Kalshi in a single day. The same body has failed for years to pass stock trading restrictions. The asymmetry is not an accident.

power 2026-04-17

Someone Bet $950 Million on Falling Oil Prices. Then Trump Announced the Iran Ceasefire.

The CFTC is investigating two instances where oil futures volumes surged minutes before major Trump announcements on Iran. The question is not whether the pattern exists. It does. The question is whether anyone will be held accountable.

power 2026-04-09

The Prediction Market Got the Ceasefire Right. The Question Is How.

Four freshly created Polymarket wallets placed $663,000 in bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before Trump announced it, at odds as low as 2.9%. Either someone had inside information, or the world's most liquid political betting market got very lucky.