CPI

4 briefs

decision 2026-05-13

Inflation Just Crossed Above the Fed's Policy Rate for the First Time in Three Years

April CPI at 3.78% now exceeds the 3.64% Fed funds rate, turning real policy rates negative -- and the Fed's incoming chair has signaled no urgency to respond.

decision 2026-05-12

The Inflation Number Lands Three Days Before the New Fed Chair Does

April CPI is expected at 3.8%, a 3-year high. Kevin Warsh takes over Friday. His first decision will be whether to pretend the last five years didn't happen.

power 2026-04-12

War Tax at the Pump

The Iran war produced the largest single-month US price spike in four years. The Federal Reserve cannot fix a supply shock, and Polymarket is pricing April inflation at 3.5-3.7%. Nobody in Washington is explaining who actually pays.

conflict 2026-04-10

The Fed Is Trapped Between a War and the Economy It Has to Protect

March CPI hit 3.3% on an Iran-war energy shock that the Fed did not cause and cannot stop. Rate cuts are now off the table. Rate hikes would crush a fragile recovery. There is no good option.